Next-Day Avalanche Thoughts And My Three Best NHL Bets For Tonight

Avs really need Josh Manson back

I’m going to start doing something I did at a previous stop, which is kind of a daily or at least every-other-day morning potpourri of Avalanche thoughts, hockey notes, links and three best bets for NHL games later that night.

It’s good for me to do this, not only to keep a regular “rep” to my writing, but to know better what’s going on around the league and point out some interesting links.

So, let’s get started:

• One area of weakness we can definitely pinpoint right now with the Avalanche, and why things have been going sideways. Well, at least that I think I can pinpoint with confidence: they’ve been too easy to play against in front of their own net. You only have to look at last night’s game against Florida to see that. Florida got a couple of goals after multiple rebound whacks at pucks in Georgie’s crease, and that’s been happening at about the same rate in most of the Avalanche’s games of late. The current Avalanche D just haven’t been muscling bodies out of the way enough in front, not making opponents pay the price for going to the blue paint.

• This is where the Avalanche have really missed Josh Manson. The Avs just need more of that, uh, badass presence in front of their net again. Manson coming back soon (I predict later next week) will help solve a lot of that problem. When a guy like Manson is out, that means guys like Cale Makar and Devon Toews and Sam Girard have to try and do more of that muscle work in front of the net and that’s just not their game. Their game is getting pucks out and going the other way. When they have to try and fill more of the duties of what a guy like Manson does, it tires them out more, leads to “fatigue” mistakes and hurts their game at the other end. I think Manson was a HUGE part of how the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup, and the sooner he can get back, the better.

• Martin Kaut in his last 17 games: one point, an assist. How many chances does this guy get before somebody says “It just isn’t working?”

• I’m not trying to be mean saying that. But this is the big time and criticism is part of it. I know there are injuries and they have to play somebody. But Kaut just absolutely looks like he needs a change of scenery. You can tell he just doesn’t have any confidence here anymore. I also know he’s not getting a lot of ice time out there (an average of 6:48 in his last four games). But he should be able to find a way to create at least some scoring chances. He has six shots on goal in his last nine games.

• That “hooking” call on Artturi Lehkonen last night, which led to Florida’s third goal on the power play, was atrocious. There was never a hooking infraction on that and it helped cost a big goal in the game. The officiating around the league just hasn’t been great lately.

• Yes, Mikko Rantanen should be in the NHL All-Star Game (and he will I’m sure). But, my god, there is nothing more tiring than the yearly “all-star snub” column in the hockey media. The ASG is what it is: a manufactured sales vehicle for the league and its sponsors. Quick, name me just one ASG most valuable player from a game in the last 20 years (I’m timing you). Very few people care about the ASG, and that includes the players. Now, get off my lawn too.

• That said, log on and vote for Mikko! (NHL.com)

• Today is the official halfway mark for several teams in the league, with games tonight. The Avs still have two more before they’re officially halfway through.

• There have been 81 multi-goal comeback victories overall this season (653 GP), amounting to 12% of all games which ranks among the highest rates at this stage of a season in League history. The Avs almost added to the list last night.

• Bo Byram skated again today.

• I also want to take a moment here to remember a great man who just passed away. His name was Bert Borgmann. He was a top official with the Colorado High School Activities Association for a long time, and I mean it when I say he was one of the nicest, best people I ever met.

• Bert had a huge influence on my young sports writing career. I was fresh off the boat from New Hampshire here in 1991, and from late that winter all the way through 1995, I wrote a ton of prep sports stories for the Denver Post. Bert was a guy who did a lot of work with the media, facilitating stuff, answering questions, giving you contacts that you needed and a myriad of other things. I don’t think I ever did not get my calls returned promptly by him - and I called a lot.

• Colorado really lost a great man today, and I know a ton of local media will echo these sentiments. Thanks for everything Bert. You can read more about his life here: (Denver Post)

OK, my NHL Three Best Bets for Wednesday

This is something I like to do. I had some real good success as a hockey betting tout for about four years with Bookies.com, but they stopped doing them. I still like to do them though, and I like to help make people money! It’s another thing that keeps me sharp about the league too.

I use the odds I base these picks on from SuperBook Colorado, who will be a presenting sponsor on my podcast moving forward. I won’t be doing any overt advertising on their behalf here, but I do want that known up front. I truly believe they are the best sportsbook in town, because their odds (hence, winning payouts) are the most generous.

Here we are, for tonight:

Maple Leafs Puck Line Over Predators (+140) - Auston Matthews won’t play tonight, but I’m going to fade the public here some and predict the Maple Leafs overachieve because of that and win by at least a couple of goals. That would help the Avs, by the way. The Preds have more points than the Avs right now. Toronto is at home and I see a win. If the two-goal margin is an empty-netter, so be it.

Ducks, Oilers Over 6.5 goals (-130) - Not great goaltending or defense from either team lately. I predict a lot of red lights tonight in Anaheim.

Kings Moneyline over Sharks (-190) - The Sharks are dreadful, while the Kings continue to be one of the most overlooked teams in the league.

A -190 return is pretty good for this matchup I think.