Dater: Nathan MacKinnon Should (And Probably Will) Win The Hart Trophy

Voters can be fickle and homers, though

A couple of weeks ago, I probably would have predicted that Auston Matthews would win the Hart Trophy as this season’s NHL MVP. Not anymore. I think it’s going to be Nathan MacKinnon. And, he should win it.

MacKinnon now has 115 points (42 goals), which is eight more points than the second-highest guy, Nikita Kucherov. He has led the Avs back to the top of the Central Division. By any definition you want, he has been the best and the league’s most valuable player this season.

Unless MacKinnon flatlines the rest of the regular season (highly unlikely) he’s probably going to win the Art Ross Trophy. Most voters use that as the top measuring stick to award the Hart, and now he’s going to win it, or at least be in the top three.

Here’s the thing: Matthews has 54 goals, to lead the league, and plays in Toronto, where there is a LOT of hockey media still, who get votes for the Hart.

For those who don’t know, the members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association make the pick for the Hart. I’m not going to get into the whole “East Coast Bias” thing, but the plain fact of the matter is there are a lot more voters from Toronto and other Canadian cities than there are from American colleagues.

Some of those writers are, no doubt, going to feel pressure to vote for Matthews. Why? Because every voter’s choices are made public now, unlike the older days. Writers who cover, say, the Maple Leafs are going to get totally abused on Twitter (no, not calling it X, ever) from their legions of partisan fans.